Hey Jesse, your troubleshooting checks out. The problem is bigger than your setup.
Two things going on at Meta right now that ManyChat has acknowledged but doesn't loudly explain in the dashboard:
1. Meta dropped Instagram's API rate limit from 5,000 calls per hour to 200 (96% reduction). Accounts pushing any real volume hit the ceiling fast and everything past that silently fails.
2. Comment webhook delivery from Meta has been intermittent for weeks across every automation platform. ManyChat has escalated to Meta. Nothing any platform can fix on their end until Meta does.
One thing actually worth trying on your side: if your automation includes both a public reply to the comment AND a DM send, those are two separate Meta Graph API calls with different rate limits and different webhook subscriptions. They fail independently, and right now the public reply call is the one breaking most often. If the public reply step fails, the whole flow can silently halt before the DM ever fires. Try a DM-only version of the flow (no public comment reply) and see if it goes through. That isolates whether you're hitting the webhook delivery problem or the public reply failure.
ManyChat's own current workaround is to use DM keyword triggers instead of comment triggers entirely. Worth keeping in your back pocket if you can't wait out the Meta side. Hope that helps.